The National Weather Service’s latest advisory has indicated that El Niño is moving into “strong” territory and is expected to remain at least this strong throughout the winter months, with a 35% chance of becoming historically intense. This climate pattern is a large-scale driver of weather conditions around the world, but the atmosphere hasn’t responded to it in the typical way.

The unusual warmth in the western Pacific is reducing the intensity of the rainfall farther east, which has resulted in different climate patterns than expected. El Niño has not yet peaked, and a westerly wind burst is expected to intensify it into January 2024. Depending on its evolution, the United States might experience a wet but warm winter.