Abortion has become a significant divisive issue in this year’s elections, with several consequential contests in different states testing the political impact of the Supreme Court’s decision to end federal abortion rights 18 months ago. As more red states implement abortion restrictions and bans, the issue is once again on the ballot, both directly and indirectly, in races across the country.

In Kentucky, Democrats are examining whether abortion can provide a political advantage even in a traditionally Republican state. Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, has used the state’s near-total abortion ban, triggered by the overturning of Roe v. Wade, to criticize his Republican opponent as an extremist. In Ohio, a socially conservative state, a ballot question will gauge the country’s political shift towards abortion rights by enshrining them in the State Constitution. Meanwhile, in Virginia, the sole Southern state without an abortion ban, Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, aims to portray Democrats as “extreme” and position his party as supporting a 15-week ban as a “common-sense position.”

These contests offer an early glimpse into how abortion will shape the political landscape in next year’s presidential and congressional elections, as well as the effectiveness of each party’s approaches. Strategists from both sides agree that abortion remains a highly energizing issue for the Democratic coalition, particularly in states where further restrictions may be passed. However, it is still unclear how well Democratic arguments will resonate in conservative areas and whether Republicans can deflect some of the attacks.

Republicans in Virginia, like State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, have aired numerous ads on the issue, attempting to mitigate their stance. Democrats have historically had the upper hand in ballot measures concerning abortion since the overturning of Roe. This year, significant amounts of money from national groups supporting both sides have been poured into the Ohio contest, transforming it into one of the most important races this autumn.

A victory in Ohio would provide momentum for abortion rights efforts next year, especially in crucial battleground states like Arizona, Florida, and Missouri. In Kentucky, Governor Beshear is pushing the limits of how abortion can mobilize the Democratic coalition, given the state’s intense political battle over abortion regulation since Roe was overturned. The governor has run powerful ads highlighting his opponent’s support for a near-total abortion ban.

However, not all Democrats running in red states have embraced Beshear’s approach. Instead, they are focusing on leveraging the issue on a race-by-race basis, much like they did in the midterms. For example, Democratic candidate Brandon Presley in Mississippi has promoted his “pro-life” stance and emphasized issues like Medicaid expansion. Shawn Wilson, a Democrat who recently lost the Louisiana governor race, also identified as “pro-life.” Virginia Republicans are adjusting their approach since abortion remains legal through the second trimester, with Glenn Youngkin promising to sign a 15-week ban if Republicans take control of both legislative chambers.

Although a 15-week cutoff for abortions lacks medical justification, it aligns with the majority of Americans’ support for restrictions based on polling. National Republican strategists are urging candidates to adopt a 15-week ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and risks to the woman’s physical health. They hope this will help counter the extremist label and create a more favorable perception among voters concerned about abortion while supporting Republicans on other issues.

Despite this strategy, Democrats argue that there are significant complications and complexities to Youngkin’s approach. Polls suggest… [Incomplete]