As Israeli troops continue their advance into Gaza to destroy Hamas, the world is also closely monitoring the situation on Israel’s northern border, where its forces have been engaged in intense clashes with Hezbollah, a more powerful foe. Hezbollah, as a Lebanese militant group, has found itself in a difficult position since its ally Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7th. Despite years of desiring a fight with Israel, Hezbollah is torn between maintaining its credibility as a defender of the Palestinians and hesitating to engage in a full-scale war.

Throughout its history, Hezbollah has identified itself as a resistance movement dedicated to protecting Lebanon, fighting against Israel, and supporting the Palestinian cause for statehood. However, in response to the Israeli ground incursions into Gaza and the rising death toll of Palestinians, Hezbollah’s response has been concerning but restrained. This balancing act reflects the group’s significant role in Lebanon as the most influential political and military force. Even the Lebanese government cannot control Hezbollah’s decisions, which often have broader regional implications due to its association with Iran-backed militias like Hamas.

The question now is whether Hezbollah can maintain its reputation as a vanguard of the resistance movement while remaining on the sidelines of the conflict as Israel continues its airstrikes on Gaza. In their last major war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah displayed greater capabilities with more sophisticated weapons and experienced militants. However, in the current situation, they have only engaged in limited skirmishes with Israeli troops. While Hezbollah has the potential to target Israel’s north and strain its military capabilities, they have chosen not to do so due to regional and domestic considerations.

Lebanon is currently experiencing a severe economic crisis, leaving little appetite for war among its citizens. Furthermore, a second front by Hezbollah may prompt the United States to come to Israel’s aid. American officials have privately urged Israel to avoid launching a major strike on Hezbollah. Nevertheless, if the situation worsens in Gaza or if Israel escalates its attacks on Lebanon, Hezbollah may feel the pressure to respond.

Hezbollah, like Hamas, is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries. Some Hamas leaders have suggested that they expect more support from Hezbollah and other regional allies. Although Hezbollah’s precise capabilities remain uncertain, it has the ability to cause damage within Israel. With a vast arsenal of rockets and precision guided missiles, Hezbollah can target sensitive Israeli locations.

The Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has remained unusually quiet since the October 7th attacks launched by Hamas. A Lebanese official who communicates with Hezbollah has stated that the group’s red line for intervention is the destruction of Hamas. However, this goal aligns with Israel’s objective, which raises questions about Hezbollah’s role in the conflict.

Over the past three weeks, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in rocket attacks and shelling across the Israel-Lebanon border, marking the most intense clashes since 2006. These clashes have forced tens of thousands of people on both sides to flee. To avoid sparking a larger war, Hezbollah appears to be restraining its attacks, despite the intensity last week. The group has quietly informed its allies that it believes Hamas is in a favorable position and does not yet require Hezbollah’s assistance.

Iran has spent years developing a network of militias across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, to project power and influence regional politics. While several of these groups have received training from Hezbollah and have participated in limited regional conflicts, Hezbollah remains Iran’s most valuable asset against Israel. However, getting involved in the conflict carries high risks for Hezbollah, given the presence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean that could target the group.

Despite Israel’s superior air force and military equipment, experts argue that the Israeli army could struggle against Hezbollah’s well-trained guerrilla fighters on the ground. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is increasingly unpopular outside of its religious Shiite Muslim base. Many see the group as part of the corrupt political class responsible for the country’s economic crisis.

Although these considerations may influence Hezbollah’s decision-making, they may not prevent the group from launching a war with Israel if it so chooses. Hezbollah may hope that Israel’s actions in Gaza and the high civilian death toll will galvanize anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment across the Middle East, reinvigorating support for armed action against Israel.